French Open Tennis: Mirjana Lucic-Baroni-Simona Halep
 
We were correct in taking two big handicap starts ysterday, opposing two big name players in Serena Willams and Pera Kvitova and I have to do likewise today with last year's runner up Simona Halep. The world #3 has had a very solid 2015, but has not been sweeping players aside with quite the same authority as she was through early rounds last year and was taken to 22 games here in Round 1 by Evgeniya Rodina who is very much a journeywoman player, but nowhere near the standard of the two we spoke of in those terms yesterday and she has played very little tennis on the WTA tour in recent years.
 
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni is of a different level entirely, she has had a well documented troubled life off court and was effectively lost to the game for 8 years, MLB was a multi winner as a teenager and there is no knowing how good she would have become, had she been able to stick with tennis through those lost years. Since her return she has
won again on the main tour and whilst he is much better suited by faster surfaces nowadays and we will see the best of her after this event, she has taken at least a set from the last three top 20 ranked players she has faced who are 1.69 m or less. Halep would have lost on this handicap to ten of the 13 players she has played who are 1.8 m + in 2015, wih one tie and a couple of those were very lowly ranked, one outside the top 300. The older taller girl plus the handiap for me.

 
 Mirjana Lucic-Baroni +7 games 1.925 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro.
 

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Sam Stosur- Maria Sharapova
 
 
Both players after slow career starts in Paris have learned to not only thrive at, but to love Roland Garros. Sam Stosur is a three time semi finalist here and was big odds on favourite in the 2010 final, but lost out to Francesca Schiavone. Masha has appeared in the last three finals at RG and is a two time winner and defending champion and those are words I never expected to be typing, but we have to now consider her a clay court champion, but if I am being honest, I still have a problem with that. However, she has a 14-2 lifetime record against the 31 yo Australian and should win today, but their last two meetings on the surface that were not played in Madrid ( we discussed the non-clay like surface there earlier in the week) have gone the distance, the first of those to 7-5 in the third and Stosur was well on top in the second, which came in R4 last year. Stosur's kick serve has been wildly successful, especially at RG, but is less effective against Sharapova, given her height and huge reach, but in the last couple of year's Stosur has added more variety to her serve and that might be the reason it has been a little more effective against the Russian superstar in recent meetings on the surface. Given that and the fact that Stosur is in much better form coming in this year, winning Strasbourg and only dropping five games in winning her two opening matches, I like the underdog to again take a set.  1.5 units Samantha Stosur +1.5 sets 2.02 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro.
 
 
Best odds for Stosur to win and Sharapova to win 2-1 in sets is the same thing and will even get you slightly higher odds, actually the 4.0 + for the latter (Masha in three sets) is a really attractive quote.

Serena Williams- Timea Bacsinzky
 
 
Serena has looked a bit cavalier at times over the last 10-12 days, she should have lost to Azarenka and for a set and a bit against Sloane Stephens looked disinterested, very un -Serena like. I was thinking what was the point in putting all that effort into beating Azarenka, only to "give up" the next match, but she awoke from her slumber to take that and looked very motivated yesterday against Sara Errani in a match she could have won without trying, it was just weird that it was that match she came out a little "pumped" for. She probably realised that slam #20 was hers for the taking and she is 17-1 in grand slam semi- finals, the only blip since 2003 being that 09 loss to Kim Clijsters in the US Open, when the Belgian player was simply destined to win the title that year. Since the loss to Clijsters, she is 9/9 in semis, she has won all of them in straight sets and the last five by an average of 8.4 games and it is hard to see Bacsinzky having the weapons to trouble Serena, or to put a halt to that sequence. Williams in two sets, but odds of sub 1.60 make absolutely no appeal to me, the -5.5 game handicap looks and is tough, but Serena has covered it rather easily in four of her last five semis and although Bacsinzky has been competive in the opening set in two previous meetings with the world number one, she let the second go far easier in both and she will be nervous today and it might not be so easy to stick with Williams the younger early on.
 
 
Serena Williams -5.5 games 2.139 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro.